中金点睛·2025-11-25 23:39Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle starting in 2026, driven by stable supply-demand dynamics and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][4]. Demand - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver. The domestic market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is benefiting from increased battery capacity and the expansion of new application scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [7][10]. - In 2026, the average battery capacity for domestic passenger vehicles is projected to continue increasing, supported by policy adjustments and the introduction of high-capacity fast-charging models [7]. - The European market is anticipated to see accelerated demand recovery in 2026, driven by the launch of new platform models and continued subsidies for NEVs [10]. Supply and Demand - The supply-demand inflection point is approaching, with a confirmed trend of price reversal. By 2025, the demand driven by energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and price increases in various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [11][17]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to rise, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity by the third quarter of 2025 [17]. New Technology - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with several manufacturers expected to achieve small-scale production by 2026. The focus is on solid-state sulfide batteries, which are anticipated to reach mass production levels [30][31]. - Semi-solid batteries are also gaining traction due to their higher safety and energy density, with commercial production expected to ramp up in various sectors, including electric vehicles and energy storage [29][30]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will drive a reversal trend in the sector. Key recommendations include lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [5]. - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are highlighted as high-growth investment directions, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [5][34]. International Expansion - The lithium battery supply chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, with significant production expected to come online in 2026 across Europe and Southeast Asia. This expansion is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [25][26]. - Companies are adopting new business models, such as technology licensing, to facilitate entry into markets with high trade barriers, exemplified by CATL's LRS model in the U.S. [27]. Charging Infrastructure - The domestic charging station construction is expected to benefit from supportive policies, while the U.S. market may see a surge in installations due to preemptive actions ahead of tariff impacts [39].