中金 | “锡望”之二：供需紧平衡且供给扰动频发，激励价格攀升

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a structural shift with rising prices and demand driven by AI and traditional sectors, while supply remains constrained due to resource depletion and geopolitical factors [2][4][54]. Group 1: Tin Market Overview - Since 2020, tin prices have increased, leading to improved industry profitability and a current PE ratio at the 21st percentile over the past five years [2]. - Tin is one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with a global static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years in 2024, indicating a tight supply situation [3][7]. - Major tin resources are concentrated in a few regions, with high development levels, and many supply areas have static reserve-to-production ratios below 22 years [4][7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure and smart devices, along with the electrification of vehicles, is expected to accelerate tin solder demand, projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [3][12]. - Traditional demand is anticipated to benefit from global monetary easing and the increasing need for "strategic stockpiles" amid geopolitical tensions, with overall global tin demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [3][13]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Key producing regions like China, Indonesia, and Myanmar face significant supply challenges, including declining reserves and frequent disruptions [4][28][38]. - China's tin reserves have decreased by 52% from 2001 to 2024, with a static reserve-to-production ratio dropping to 14 years [28][29]. - Indonesia's tin industry is grappling with resource depletion and regulatory changes that exacerbate supply disruptions, while Myanmar's production has been severely impacted by operational halts [38][45]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The tin price is expected to rise due to supply constraints and improving demand, with projections indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario from 2025 to 2030 [54][61]. - The global tin supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030, while demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.3% during the same period [61][63]. - The industry faces rising costs due to declining ore grades and inflationary pressures, which may further elevate the incentive prices for new projects [63][64].