过去三天利率期货持仓量暴涨，市场“确信”12月美联储降息，这一次市场会错吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has dropped below 4% for the first time in a month, and highlights the significant shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations - A recent survey by JPMorgan indicates that investors' net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have reached their highest level in about 15 years [1]. - Market pricing shows that traders believe there is an approximately 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, a significant increase from just 30% a few days prior [5]. - The market's expectations for rate cuts have dramatically reversed in a short period, influenced by comments from Federal Reserve officials and recent economic data [3][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The internal opinions within the Federal Reserve appear to be divided, with a growing number of members leaning towards a dovish stance [8]. - Recent economic data, including labor market indicators, may provide justification for Chairman Powell to persuade other FOMC members towards a rate cut [7]. - Some top investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, express skepticism about the likelihood of a rate cut in December, indicating that the decision remains uncertain despite market expectations [12][14]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - Economic performance has been strong from a growth perspective, but there are still risks in the labor market, and inflation remains above the target at around 3% [16]. - The SOFR options market has seen increased activity related to hedging against a December rate cut, with a notable rise in open interest for call options [11].