美股IPO·2025-11-26 01:14Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that Alibaba's stock price reversal is primarily due to management's warning during the earnings call about slowing growth in customer management revenue and short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition and reinvestment [1][6][14] Financial Performance - Alibaba's latest earnings report showed strong growth in cloud business and AI capital expenditures, leading to a 4% pre-market stock price increase [3] - However, the optimistic market sentiment did not last, as the stock ultimately fell over 2% after the earnings call [4] Market Concerns - The negative market reaction is attributed to increased investor concerns regarding the e-commerce business, particularly after management indicated potential slowdowns in customer management revenue growth and quarterly fluctuations in EBITA [6][12] - CFO Xu Hong stated that customer management revenue and profits are expected to experience short-term volatility due to the impact of payment fees and promotional base effects [6][10] AI and Cloud Business Highlights - In contrast to e-commerce concerns, Alibaba's AI and cloud business emerged as the standout highlight of the earnings report, with cloud revenue growing 34% year-over-year, surpassing Goldman Sachs' 31% expectation [8][12] - AI-related revenue now accounts for 20% of external customer revenue and has achieved triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [8] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Alibaba's capital expenditures surged 80% year-over-year to 32 billion RMB, while competitor Tencent's capital expenditures declined [10] - Management hinted that the previously announced three-year investment target of 380 billion RMB might be conservative, suggesting potential for increased future investments [11] - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for Alibaba's cloud growth, projecting growth rates of 38% and 37% for the December and March quarters, respectively [12] Valuation Adjustments - Despite lowering the target price from $205 to $197, Goldman Sachs retains a "buy" rating on Alibaba, citing stable cloud business valuations and a robust AI narrative [13][14] - The firm believes that the market may be underestimating the potential of Alibaba's international cloud business and the associated "globalization" valuation [15]