华尔街见闻·2025-11-26 01:07Core Viewpoint - The market's optimism did not last, as Alibaba's stock price fell over 2% after the earnings call, primarily due to concerns regarding its e-commerce business [1] E-commerce Business Concerns - Goldman Sachs attributed the negative stock reaction to increased investor worries about Alibaba's e-commerce business, particularly after management indicated potential slowdowns in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) growth due to intensified competition and user reinvestment [3][6] - The CFO of Alibaba, Xu Hong, mentioned that fluctuations in CMR and profits are expected in the short term, influenced by the base effect from the introduction of payment processing fees last September [4][5] - The market's concerns are compounded by high base effects from software service fees in the previous year, which may impact growth rates [6] AI and Cloud Business Highlights - In contrast to e-commerce worries, Alibaba's AI and cloud businesses were the standout performers in the earnings report, with cloud revenue growing 34% year-over-year, surpassing Goldman Sachs' expectation of 31% [7][8] - AI-related revenue now constitutes 20% of external customer revenue and has achieved triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [8] - Alibaba's capital expenditures surged 80% year-over-year to 32 billion RMB, reflecting a strong commitment to its AI strategy, which Goldman Sachs likened to Google's capabilities [9][10] Future Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for Alibaba's cloud growth, projecting growth rates of 38% and 37% for the December and March quarters, respectively, driven by strong AI demand [11] - Despite lowering the target price from $205 to $197, Goldman Sachs retains a "buy" rating, believing that Alibaba's cloud business valuation remains stable and that the AI narrative is still intact [12][13] International Cloud Business Potential - Analysts suggest that the market may be underestimating the potential of Alibaba's international cloud business and the associated "globalization" valuation [14]