雪球·2025-11-26 08:24Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics between hardware and software companies in the AI era, highlighting the competition between Nvidia and Google as a key indicator of future trends in the industry [4][8][20]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article outlines the historical shifts in the tech industry, noting how different eras have favored certain companies: Google and Facebook in the internet age, Microsoft and Amazon in the cloud computing era, and Apple in the mobile internet era [4][5][6]. Group 2: Nvidia's Position - Nvidia has achieved a dominant position in the GPU market, with over 95% market share in training GPUs and a gross margin exceeding 75% [10]. - The company has transformed from merely selling chips to offering a comprehensive AI software suite, enhancing its platform control [10]. - Nvidia's order backlog extends to 2026, indicating strong demand from major cloud providers like Microsoft and Amazon [10]. Group 3: Google's Capabilities - Google possesses a robust AI stack, including the foundational Transformer architecture and advanced models like LaMDA and Gemini [13]. - The company has developed its own chips (TPUs) that compete with Nvidia's offerings in training efficiency [13]. - Google's extensive data ecosystem, generated from services like Search and YouTube, provides a unique advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate [13][15]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the AI landscape is shifting from a focus on infrastructure (who has more GPUs) to creating real value through AI applications [17]. - Key indicators of this shift include the increasing homogeneity of models and the rising importance of inference costs [17]. - Google’s integrated approach allows it to leverage its existing user base and data, positioning it favorably in this new phase [19]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The boundaries between hardware and software companies are blurring, with Nvidia venturing into software and Google developing its own chips [22]. - The article emphasizes that the true competitive advantage lies in creating a cohesive ecosystem that integrates hardware and software [23]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the potential for continued infrastructure investment favoring Nvidia or the value realization phase favoring Google [25].