张树伟：煤电“安全兜底”和“低碳转型”，需在运行方式上高度分化

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of coal power from being a "basic guarantee power source" to a "supporting adjustment power source" within China's energy strategy, emphasizing the need for a differentiated operational logic for coal power to achieve safety and low-carbon transformation [2][3][10]. Energy Transition and Challenges - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to establish a new energy system and a new power system, focusing on accelerating the construction of a new energy framework and promoting energy security [2]. - By September 2025, domestic coal consumption is projected to reach nearly 2.2 billion tons, indicating that coal power will still play a significant role during this transition [2]. - As of September 2025, installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 1.7 billion kilowatts, accounting for 46% of total installed capacity, with wind and solar generation contributing 22.3% to total electricity consumption in the first three quarters of the year [2]. - The increasing scale of renewable energy generation faces challenges in system absorption, with wind abandonment rates at 6.6% and solar abandonment rates at 5.7%, indicating a need for changes in renewable energy development and operational models [2]. Differentiated Operation of Coal Power - To achieve effective safety and low-carbon transformation, over 5,000 coal power units need to operate in a highly differentiated manner, with some units running as baseload, others ensuring grid stability, and some serving as strategic reserves [3][10]. - The current operational model of coal power is criticized for being overly homogenized, which limits efficiency and flexibility in the system [10]. Market and Policy Mechanisms - The article highlights the need for clearer policy objectives and market mechanisms to support the transition to a new energy system, emphasizing that the current market structure is fragmented and lacks transparency [21]. - The concept of "green electricity" is discussed, suggesting that it should be treated as equivalent to "green certificate consumption," which has become less relevant due to the decreasing costs of renewable energy [12][14]. - The article argues for the need to allow renewable energy to replace coal power in a broader context rather than being confined to self-consumption scenarios, which currently limits efficiency [18]. Future Directions - The article suggests that the focus should be on improving the operational transparency of the energy system, allowing for better understanding and efficiency in policy and investment decisions [21]. - It calls for a shift from traditional planning methods to more dynamic models that consider load curves and extreme weather impacts, advocating for the integration of randomness optimization methods to enhance system resilience [22][23].