锐评阿里最新财报，AI在3年内不存在泡沫？

Financial Performance - The financial report for Q2 2026 reflects the performance from July to September 2025, with total revenue of 247.8 billion RMB, representing a 5% increase, while Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 72% to 10.4 billion RMB [3][4] - Alibaba's China e-commerce group generated revenue of 132.6 billion RMB, a 16% increase, with customer management revenue (CMR) at 78.9 billion RMB, up 10% [4][5] - The adjusted EBITA for Alibaba's China e-commerce group was 10.5 billion RMB, down 76% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in new instant retail businesses [4][5] Business Segments - Revenue breakdown for Alibaba's business segments includes: - China e-commerce group: 132.6 billion RMB (+16%) - International digital commerce group: 34.8 billion RMB (+10%) - Cloud intelligence group: 39.8 billion RMB (+34.5%) - Other segments: 62.9 billion RMB (-25.5%) [5] Losses and Market Expectations - The losses from the Taobao flash purchase business were previously guided to be between 35 billion to 40 billion RMB, with estimates falling between 36 billion to 38 billion RMB, indicating that the market had anticipated these losses [6] - Despite the significant quarterly loss of 36 billion RMB against a revenue of 22.9 billion RMB, the market seems to have factored this into stock price expectations [6] Market Position and Competition - Meituan is expected to report quarterly revenue around 50 billion RMB, with market shares estimated at Meituan 5-6, Alibaba 3-4, and JD at a smaller fraction [8] - Management indicated that instant retail has contributed an additional 2-3% to e-commerce CMR, translating to approximately 15.7 billion to 23.6 billion RMB [8] AI and Cloud Developments - Alibaba Cloud showed a strong performance with a revenue growth of 34.5%, exceeding expectations, although the actual sequential growth was around 3% when excluding internal demand [10] - The company plans to invest 380 billion RMB in capital expenditures over the next three years for AI infrastructure, having already spent 120 billion RMB in the past four quarters [10][11] Cash Reserves and Financial Health - As of Q3, Alibaba's cash and liquid investments totaled 573.89 billion RMB, with cash inflow of 30.7 billion RMB, a 53% decline due to increased investments [12] - Comparatively, Pinduoduo's cash reserves were 423.8 billion RMB, with minimal investments, highlighting a stark contrast in financial strategies [12]