大家好，我是佩妮。 快过年了，最近和一位老朋友聚，他也是十几年老投资人了，这两年自己独立出来做了个基金，准备募下一期。 他笑着说，你可以当素材写一篇： 非主流屌丝投资人，是如何在现在这个市场下生存的。 本来是戏言，嘿，没想到我真写了吧？ 我有一次和另一个老朋友见面，吓了一跳，因为他胖了二十斤。一问，原来是去年拿了某地政府基金很多钱，跑了很多趟。 我就非常不擅长这个，可是他们都非常擅长。 如果做一级市场的人精，想要刻意讨好一个人，他们能在短时间成为你最好的朋友。今天你们刚认识，三个月之后就可以一起去家庭旅游了。 核心就是 花时间 ，以及他认为值得在你身上花时间。（但是当你不值得他花这个时间了之后，也是非常冷酷而决绝。） 怪不得说 VC渣男多呢…… （但是放心，我不会给你们定位到是谁的机会的 。） 他第一期基金，规模不超过 2 亿 RMB，所投方向是个相对比较长期热门的方向。现在投得差不多了，也有 DPI（退出的钱），大概率不会 亏。 团队很小，前中后台加起来不超过 5 个人。 募资很难 ，他感叹。 "我现在已经大概清楚我的 能力上限 了，以我的学历背景、过往履历，我能拿到的钱就是这么多。熟悉的政府和上市公司占一 ...

大家好，我是佩妮～ 今天是个好日子！撒花 除了 Manus 被 Meta 收购，其实 AI 行业还有个大事件，就是 大模型公司智谱华章，在港交所开始申购 了，预计在1月8日在港交所主板上市。 以每股 116.2 港币发行价计算，这次的募资总额预计达到 43 亿港币，市值超过 511 亿港币 （约 460 亿RMB 左右）。 | 以每股 | 116.2 港币发行价计算，这次的募资总额预计达到 | 43 亿港币，市值超过 | 511 亿港币 | （约 | 460 亿RMB 左右）。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （也是好消息，和Manus撞上了有点生不逢时，堪称 | AI 界汪峰……） | | | | | | | | AI 行业的朋友，前阵肯定都会刷到 | MiniMax 这两家明星公司，通过港交所聆讯的消息。 | 只要关注 | 智谱 | 和 | 前阵子还老有人猜谁会是第一股（智谱是 | 19 号披露的招股书，minimax 晚了两天），现在不用猜了，花落智谱，不愧是 | "AI 国家队" 。 | | IPO 都喜欢叫自己 | ...

大家好，我是佩妮。 年底了，又到了反思、复盘，思考明年的投资策略的时候。 我之前写过我在 A 股指数的仓位占比比较高，个股尤其是投机型妖股碰的少。本来睡眠就不好了，买了回头更睡不好。。 宽基在 A 股这种上蹿下跳的市场，比较适合作为底仓，在较低估值的时候持续买入持有。 我从 22-24 年中一直在买宽基。 恒生科技、500ETF 是我宽基里持仓最多的，到现在收益率都有 40%+ ，低点持续定投，高的时候暂停，再高 了就卖点。 当然这些主要都是这一年多涨起来的，毕竟去年 930 之前，上证还在 2600 点，到现在接近 4000 点。如果从那个时候拿到现在，涨幅 40% 多，如果从 25 年年初开始拿，也有 20%+。 | 申万一级行业 | | 2015/4/10沪指站上4000 | | 2025/10/28沪指站上4000 | PE(TTM) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PE (TTM) | 至4000点涨跌幅 | PE (TTM) | 至4000点涨跌幅 | 比值 | | 计算机 | 112.11 | 79.0% | 92.86 | 82.6% | ...

几个月前，很多朋友看过 我愿称之为目前最强的金融投研AI Agent 这一篇，作为个人投资者，熵简科技的 AlphaEngine已经是我日常离不开的工 具。 无他， 太好用了！ 不管是看国内海外各种研报，公司/专家纪要，和 AI 脑暴研究策略，我都在用。 这一两年， AI 的能力从会议纪要，总结，慢慢拓展到行业分析，产业分析，以及深入参与投资决策。我也算是眼睁睁地看着 AI 一步步从实习 生进化到初级分析师，再到现在接近 高级研究员 水准了…… 大家好，我是佩妮。 今天就是来给大家定期 update一下，近期金融投研行业的变化，和好用工具的一些新功能和进展。 现在金融领域的 AI 投研工具进化非常快，我也和公司创始人费总讨论了，总结主要有这几个原因： 1）基础大模型也依然在快速进化。 基模的竞争非常激烈，最好的模型永远是那几家头部公司出的最新款。而 应用公司必须使用最前沿的模型 ，以保证自己的产品优势领先。 根据我自己的使用体验，和公司的反馈，当前最好的大模型是 Google 上个月刚推出的 Gemini3 pro ，达到了明显断档层级的优势。 他们出了一个金融投研领域的数据测评集（主要来自客户反馈的哪些 A ...

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have been the best-performing globally this year, with average returns exceeding 20% despite recent profit pullbacks [1] - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a decline, with the peak drop around 8%, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and Japan [4][5] Sector Performance - Key sectors in the Hong Kong market, including e-commerce, AI, and new energy vehicles, are facing challenges, leading to reduced profitability and sales expectations [5] - The upcoming unlock of restricted shares in November and December, including significant companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine, is expected to exert selling pressure on the market [5] Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently valued at only 26% of its historical valuation, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors looking to engage with technology and internet leaders [7] - For investors with access to overseas brokerage accounts, the U.S. stock market offers a wide range of investment options, with the S&P 500 being a historically strong asset class [9][12] ETF and Index Insights - The newly launched China Technology Innovation ETF (CNQQ) aims to capture the growth of Chinese tech companies, with a focus on those with significant R&D investments [13][14] - The ETF market in the U.S. is robust, with over $10 trillion in assets, providing various strategies and exposure to different sectors [9] Conclusion - The current market conditions suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for both A-shares and U.S. equities, with potential for strategic investments in technology and growth sectors [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing a surge in product launches, with a call from the National Development and Reform Commission to avoid homogeneous products to maintain profitability and invest in R&D [1][2]. Industry Policies and Standards - In the first half of 2025, various local governments have introduced numerous policies to encourage the development of the humanoid robot industry, which has been included in the national "14th Five-Year Plan" as a key direction for future industrial innovation [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the members of the Humanoid Robot Standardization Technical Committee, including key figures from leading companies [3]. Market Dynamics and Production - The humanoid robot industry is still in its infancy, with current production levels being low. Estimates suggest that the industry could reach a shipment volume of 100,000 units by 2026, although many of these may only be framework orders [6]. - Current orders for humanoid robots in China are estimated to be less than 10,000 units this year, with projections of 20,000 to 25,000 units for next year, translating to a market size of less than 10 billion yuan at an average price of 300,000 yuan per unit [6]. - Orders are primarily concentrated in three sectors: industrial applications (manufacturing, logistics, inspection), commercial services (hotels, shopping malls, office buildings), and data centers, with a significant focus on government projects [6]. Technological and Economic Considerations - The humanoid robot's design aims for versatility and adaptability to human environments, with the goal of achieving a "perfect ultimate form" that can be sold globally. However, the current cost of humanoid robots remains prohibitively high compared to simpler robotic solutions [9]. - The industry is characterized by a significant disparity between companies that focus on storytelling and vision versus those that have established profitable products. The latter often struggle to achieve high valuations in the B2B sector [17]. Investment Trends - The robot industry has seen a surge in interest, with nearly 30 companies in the robotics supply chain filing for listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the first 11 months of the year, primarily in industrial applications [17]. - The robot ETF has attracted significant capital, with the E Fund Robot ETF (159530) surpassing 10 billion yuan in scale and achieving a peak return of nearly 70% since its inception, driven by the high representation of humanoid robot-related stocks [17][18]. Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture, with a mix of optimism and caution as companies navigate the challenges of production, market demand, and technological advancement. The focus on unique product offerings and the ability to adapt to market needs will be essential for long-term success [20].

Financial Performance - The financial report for Q2 2026 reflects the performance from July to September 2025, with total revenue of 247.8 billion RMB, representing a 5% increase, while Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 72% to 10.4 billion RMB [3][4] - Alibaba's China e-commerce group generated revenue of 132.6 billion RMB, a 16% increase, with customer management revenue (CMR) at 78.9 billion RMB, up 10% [4][5] - The adjusted EBITA for Alibaba's China e-commerce group was 10.5 billion RMB, down 76% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in new instant retail businesses [4][5] Business Segments - Revenue breakdown for Alibaba's business segments includes: - China e-commerce group: 132.6 billion RMB (+16%) - International digital commerce group: 34.8 billion RMB (+10%) - Cloud intelligence group: 39.8 billion RMB (+34.5%) - Other segments: 62.9 billion RMB (-25.5%) [5] Losses and Market Expectations - The losses from the Taobao flash purchase business were previously guided to be between 35 billion to 40 billion RMB, with estimates falling between 36 billion to 38 billion RMB, indicating that the market had anticipated these losses [6] - Despite the significant quarterly loss of 36 billion RMB against a revenue of 22.9 billion RMB, the market seems to have factored this into stock price expectations [6] Market Position and Competition - Meituan is expected to report quarterly revenue around 50 billion RMB, with market shares estimated at Meituan 5-6, Alibaba 3-4, and JD at a smaller fraction [8] - Management indicated that instant retail has contributed an additional 2-3% to e-commerce CMR, translating to approximately 15.7 billion to 23.6 billion RMB [8] AI and Cloud Developments - Alibaba Cloud showed a strong performance with a revenue growth of 34.5%, exceeding expectations, although the actual sequential growth was around 3% when excluding internal demand [10] - The company plans to invest 380 billion RMB in capital expenditures over the next three years for AI infrastructure, having already spent 120 billion RMB in the past four quarters [10][11] Cash Reserves and Financial Health - As of Q3, Alibaba's cash and liquid investments totaled 573.89 billion RMB, with cash inflow of 30.7 billion RMB, a 53% decline due to increased investments [12] - Comparatively, Pinduoduo's cash reserves were 423.8 billion RMB, with minimal investments, highlighting a stark contrast in financial strategies [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the experiences and perspectives of individuals working in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and contrasts them with those in market-oriented institutions, highlighting both advantages and disadvantages of each environment [5][9]. Group 1: Advantages of State-Owned Enterprises - SOEs provide opportunities to work with talented colleagues, although leadership quality may be lacking [5]. - There is a sense of job security and a stable income, which allows employees to focus on personal projects [6]. - Skills such as text and communication abilities are developed, making transitions to private enterprises smoother [7]. - SOEs can leverage platform advantages and abundant resources to achieve significant projects that may be challenging for market institutions [9]. Group 2: Disadvantages of State-Owned Enterprises - Employees may experience a decline in skills over time, leading to concerns about reintegration into market-oriented roles [6]. - The bureaucratic nature of SOEs can lead to high compliance and management costs, along with regulatory pressures [9]. - There is a perception that many employees lack awareness of the source of investment funds, which can lead to a disconnect in understanding the investment process [11]. Group 3: Comparison with Market-Oriented Institutions - Market-oriented institutions emphasize individual heroism, while SOEs rely on collective efforts [7]. - Both SOEs and private enterprises share common issues, such as unpredictability and challenges in maintaining operational stability [9]. - The experience of working under different leadership styles can significantly impact employee satisfaction and performance, regardless of the type of organization [11].

大家好，我是佩妮。 最近跌麻了，跌的亲妈不认。尤其是美股，昨晚睡前还红彤彤，早上起来一看，天塌了…… Btc从12万到现在8.5万，也就不过一个多月。 上午再看了看大A，也是绿油油滴，满4000-200。 梗图真是诚不我欺，这样的日子，能够让我以不同的方式， 花式亏钱 。 这个时候，我们一定要冷静。 （我很冷静，但是感觉家属现在已经心态快崩了，哈哈哈哈） 接下来，我们一起梳理下原因，主要也是为了给自己找找调整思路，顺便给大家做一下 心理按摩 。 首先，给某一次大跌来找原因，总是有点 "先射箭后画靶" 的意思，我一般不爱这么干，但是收集一下信息可以更了解市场。 股市的波动一般可以从3个方面进行分析： 基本面，资金面，情绪面。 宏观的视角，说大跌的原因有这些： 1）9月公布的非农数据产生分歧，因为担心通胀，美联储放鹰， 12月降息的预期减弱了。 （简单说下： 鹰派 倾向于高利率/紧缩政策，打压通胀。 鸽派 更担心经济和就业，倾向于低利率刺激市场） 不过，我个人觉得，政策反复很正常啊。 就算12月不降，等到关税的影响相对明朗，为了经济， 明年依然会降，走向宽松的趋势是不变的。 2）还是在说 "AI泡沫" 的事儿； ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of AI from model competition to a comprehensive infrastructure competition, emphasizing the importance of computing power as the "new oil" [2][3]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure consists of a full chain including chips, computing power, models, platforms, applications, and commercialization ecosystems [3]. - Self-developed chips are crucial for optimizing computing power, reducing costs, and ensuring better integration with business needs [4][5]. - Cloud service providers play a key role in AI infrastructure, with AI cloud being an advanced version that integrates AI chips, models, algorithms, and application ecosystems [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global cloud computing market is growing rapidly, with China's annual growth rate reaching 35%, and AI-related revenues are increasing at an even faster pace [8]. - In the AI public cloud segment, Baidu Smart Cloud holds a 24.6% market share and has become the first domestic provider to announce profitability in AI cloud services [8][10]. Group 3: AI Chip Development - Baidu has developed the Kunlun chip, optimized for large-scale inference scenarios, with new models like M100 and M300 being introduced [11]. - Baidu has also made advancements in multi-card clusters for the MOE architecture, with products like "Tianchi 256" and "Tianchi 512" capable of training trillion-parameter models [12]. Group 4: Comprehensive AI Ecosystem - Baidu has established a complete domestic stack system for AI, integrating Kunlun chips and the Baijiao AI computing platform for efficient task management [16]. - The company serves over 460,000 enterprise clients and has developed more than 1.3 million platform agents to assist various industries [18]. Group 5: User-Friendly AI Development - The newly launched "Miaoda 2.0" platform allows non-technical users to create applications without programming knowledge, enhancing accessibility [19]. - Baidu's Qianfan platform integrates the latest Wenxin large model and over 150 mainstream models, providing a rich development ecosystem [20]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The article compares Baidu's comprehensive layout to Google's, highlighting the importance of having full-stack capabilities in the AI cloud market [25]. - Companies with full-stack capabilities will be able to provide powerful, stable, low-cost, and controllable AI computing power, becoming the digital foundation of the intelligent era [25].