美联储即将停止缩表原因，未来将开启量化宽松政策？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, primarily due to increasing liquidity pressure in the U.S. market and escalating fiscal burdens. This move may provide short-term relief for global dollar liquidity but could amplify volatility in emerging markets in the medium to long term [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Stopping Balance Sheet Reduction - U.S. market liquidity is nearing a warning threshold, with bank reserves dropping to $2.93 trillion (approximately 9% of GDP), close to the "money shortage" threshold of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion observed in 2019. Overnight rates, such as SOFR, have exceeded the target range, and the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged to over $10 billion in a single day, indicating heightened financing pressures [3]. - Fiscal pressures are forcing a policy shift, as U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with net interest payments approaching defense budget levels. Continued balance sheet reduction raises government financing costs and exacerbates debt risks, leading to repeated calls from the White House for the Fed to lower interest rates, challenging the Fed's policy independence [3]. - Economic data shows weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September 2025, indicating a cooling job market. Although inflation has decreased to 3%, it remains above the 2% target [3]. Group 2: Impact of Stopping Balance Sheet Reduction - In the short term, this decision is favorable as it improves liquidity, alleviates dollar financing costs, reduces repo rate volatility, and supports U.S. equity and bond markets. Emerging market capital is expected to flow back, leading to a weaker dollar (recently fluctuating between 99-100), with increased northbound capital inflows into A-shares and high-dividend assets in Hong Kong. The attractiveness of RMB assets is rising, supported by improved China-U.S. interest rate differentials and a peak season for exporters' currency conversion, enhancing the long-term appreciation expectations for the RMB [5]. - In the medium to long term, risks may arise, including increased volatility in emerging markets and potential local bubbles or debt risks due to cross-border capital "tidal effects," reminiscent of the turmoil in emerging markets following the end of balance sheet reduction in 2019. There are also inflationary concerns; if economic resilience exceeds expectations, inflation rebound could limit the Fed's capacity to lower interest rates [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Direction - Future policy may involve technical operations rather than quantitative easing (QE). The Fed may reinvest maturing MBS funds into short-term Treasury bonds to shorten asset duration. The New York Fed has indicated that if reserves fall to a critical point of $2.7 trillion, structural balance sheet expansion may be initiated, such as purchasing short-term Treasury bonds. However, QE is not expected to be implemented in the short term, as the current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4.0%, well above the zero lower bound, and conventional rate-cutting tools remain effective [7]. Group 4: Capital Market Considerations - There are opportunities for RMB asset allocation, particularly in high-dividend sectors of A-shares (banking, power, coal) with dividend yields reaching 3.8%, significantly higher than the U.S. stock market's 1.6%. The trend of foreign capital allocation is clear, supported by easing U.S. monetary policy and a narrowing decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. [9]. - Market volatility risks should be monitored, as U.S. tech stock valuations are at historical highs, with the NASDAQ's PE-TTM at 36.95 times, indicating ongoing short-term adjustment pressures. The lagging effects of Fed policy may impact corporate bonds, especially those with low ratings [9]. - It is important to note that the Fed's current policy shift is a passive adjustment under debt constraints rather than an active stimulus. Investors should focus on defensive strategies, increasing allocations to high-dividend assets, and pay attention to liquidity expectations adjustments in the upcoming December meeting. China's economy may benefit from improved external demand and capital inflows, but caution is warranted regarding cross-border volatility triggered by mixed signals from the Fed [9].