“十五五”时期应充分发挥外需对中国经济的引领作用｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges in the context of China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of global trade dynamics and external demand in driving China's economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Globalization and Trade Dynamics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's modernization, requiring a systematic understanding of the globalized environment [2]. - Favorable factors for China's development include advancements in technology and industry, which provide new engines for global economic growth [4]. - However, challenges such as rising unilateralism and protectionism pose significant threats to international trade and economic order [4]. - Historical data shows that world trade growth has fluctuated, with recent trends indicating a recovery in trade growth outpacing GDP growth [5][6]. Group 2: Trade Growth Drivers - The export value of manufactured goods has significantly increased, with a 28.7% growth from the beginning to the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6]. - High-tech and high-value-added products are becoming a larger share of global trade, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [6]. - The article predicts that global trade will continue to recover, with world exports expected to reach $25.8 trillion by 2025, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth [5]. Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's net exports have played a significant role in GDP growth, contributing approximately 1.5 percentage points in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. - Despite challenges in domestic consumption and investment due to structural changes, net exports have shown robust growth, averaging 11.8% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]. - Recent data indicates that while domestic consumption and investment have slowed, external demand remains strong, with exports showing resilience [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations - The article suggests that to address domestic demand issues, China should focus on expanding international market demand and leveraging external demand to counteract internal structural changes [13]. - Recommendations include optimizing trade structures, enhancing service trade, and promoting digital trade to stimulate economic growth [13]. - The importance of maintaining a favorable external environment for trade and investment is emphasized, as it remains a critical driver for China's economic stability and growth [13].