备战新品种 | 铂钯期货上市价格与交易策略分析

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27, 2025, at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, highlighting the expected trading strategies and market dynamics for these metals. Group 1: Futures Launch and Trading Strategies - Platinum and palladium futures will be listed with initial contracts PT/PD2606 to PT/PD2610 [4] - Recommended trading strategy for the first day includes buying on dips, with PT2606 expected to trade between 390-420 CNY/gram and PD2606 between 340-370 CNY/gram [6][26] - If prices break above the upper range, short positions may be considered [6][26] Group 2: Delivery Rules and Price Anchoring - The cheapest delivery form for platinum and palladium may be powder, as it typically trades at a discount compared to ingot forms [5][7] - The delivery rules specify that registered warehouse receipts must be for domestic platinum/palladium ingots, while factory receipts can include ingots, sponge, and powder forms [7] - Futures prices are expected to anchor slightly above the spot price of platinum/palladium powder due to delivery preferences [7] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is constrained, with a projected 5% year-on-year decline in mine supply to 171 tons in 2025, driven by low prices affecting mining profitability [16][18] - Recycling supply of platinum is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 12 tons in 2025, partially offsetting the supply shortage [16] - Palladium supply is tightening due to reduced production from mining companies, with a significant portion of palladium supply coming from recycling [23] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Outlook - The article anticipates that platinum prices will be supported by strong demand from the automotive sector, with a 21% year-on-year increase in car sales in China [17] - Palladium demand is expected to weaken due to the rising share of electric vehicles, impacting its price support [23] - The initial pricing center for platinum futures is estimated around 405 CNY/gram and for palladium around 355 CNY/gram [25]