美国农业经济陷入“K型分化”，政府补贴飙升至危机时期的水平

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "K-shaped divergence" in the U.S. agricultural economy, where production costs are rising while agricultural product prices are declining, leading to significant challenges for farmers [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The agricultural economy is experiencing a "K-shaped divergence," with rising production costs and falling agricultural product prices [2][3]. - Agricultural product prices surged during the pandemic but have been in decline from 2022 to 2024, with only a slight recovery this year [2]. - The increase in production costs, including fuel, fertilizers, and machinery, has not been matched by a corresponding rise in the prices farmers receive for their products [2][5]. Group 2: Government Support and Financial Pressure - The number of farm bankruptcies is on the rise, particularly in major soybean-producing states [5]. - The U.S. government has increased support for farmers, with the "Big and Beautiful Act" signed by the Trump administration in July, allocating approximately $66 billion for agricultural spending, including $59 billion for risk management [5]. - Despite a projected nearly 40% increase in actual agricultural net income this year, about three-quarters of this growth is attributed to government subsidies [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for agricultural product prices remains bleak, indicating that the "K-shaped" agricultural economy may persist [5]. - There are no signs that China will fulfill its agreement to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of the year, exacerbating the situation [5]. - Farmers who switched to other crops due to the halt in soybean purchases are now facing new challenges, as prices for corn, wheat, and barley are also declining due to oversupply [5][7]. Group 4: Survey Insights - A recent survey by AgWeb indicates that 59% of economists believe the agricultural economy has worsened compared to the previous month, with nearly 90% stating it has weakened compared to last year [7]. - 76% of respondents expect the current situation to persist until 2026 or worsen further [7]. - An economist described the current predicament as a "boiling frog" scenario, where the decline is gradual rather than a sudden collapse [7].