中金 • 全球研究 | 解码再工业化系列（三）：美国制造业回流趋势篇——关注三条投资主线

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing trend of re-industrialization in the U.S., focusing on three main investment themes for 2026: robust public infrastructure projects, a rebound in industrial equipment investment after a three-year downturn, and the growth of the data center industry driven by AI infrastructure [2][3]. Investment Themes - Theme 1: Public Infrastructure Projects The article predicts a strong recovery in non-residential construction investments, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and soft infrastructure, driven by large public projects [2][3][9]. - Theme 2: Industrial Equipment Investment Rebound Following a three-year decline, the industrial equipment investment indicators are expected to recover, reflecting renewed production activities in the manufacturing sector [3][30]. - Theme 3: Data Center Industry Growth The demand for AI infrastructure is anticipated to significantly boost the data center industry, with projected investments of approximately $100-110 billion in 2026, despite a decrease in growth rate from previous years [3][46][49]. Manufacturing Sector Dynamics - The article highlights that the re-shoring of manufacturing is positively impacting construction investments, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and pharmaceuticals, with a projected annual investment increase exceeding $300 billion under optimistic scenarios [7][30]. - From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. manufacturing sector is expected to see a substantial increase in construction investments, with a projected growth of 184% from $816 billion in 2021 to $2.321 trillion in 2024 [31]. Infrastructure Investment Trends - The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is driving a significant increase in public infrastructure spending, with $1.2 trillion authorized for infrastructure projects, of which $550 billion is allocated for new investments [14][15]. - As of the end of 2024, 21% of the planned projects under the IIJA have been funded, indicating a strong pipeline for future infrastructure investments [15]. Employment and Labor Market Insights - The article notes that employment in the non-residential construction sector has accelerated due to infrastructure spending, although growth rates are expected to decline post-2024 [18][21]. - The labor market in the construction sector is expected to remain robust, with a shift towards specialized contractors as the focus moves from large public projects to ongoing maintenance and upgrades [18][21]. Sector-Specific Insights - The article identifies that the commercial construction sector is experiencing a structural divide, with data center projects leading the way, while traditional commercial investments are lagging [23][25]. - The residential construction sector is projected to recover in 2026 after a period of decline, with new housing starts expected to stabilize [25][30]. Conclusion - Overall, the article presents a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. re-industrialization trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities across various sectors, particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing, and data centers, driven by government policies and technological advancements [2][3][30].