Oracle(US:ORCL) 美股IPO·2025-11-27 00:21Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank and HSBC maintain a bullish outlook on Oracle, suggesting that the market has not priced in the potential of its OpenAI business, despite recent stock price declines [1][5][9] Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Oracle's stock experienced a significant rebound after a nearly 30% drop over the past month, with a 6.6% increase at the start of trading on Wednesday [3] - Deutsche Bank and HSBC reaffirmed their buy ratings for Oracle, projecting at least a 90% upside from current levels, with Deutsche Bank setting a target price of $375 and HSBC at $382 [5][9] - Analysts believe that even without additional revenue from OpenAI, Oracle's earnings per share (EPS) will only decrease from $21 to approximately $17 by fiscal year 2030 [7][8] Group 2: Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) and Market Concerns - Oracle's RPO has surged by 411% over the past six quarters, primarily due to long-term contracts, raising concerns about renegotiation risks if customer demand changes [6] - The company disclosed that it secured approximately $65 billion in incremental RPO from four clients, pushing its total RPO over $500 billion [5][11] - HSBC argues that market fears regarding Oracle's RPO are unfounded and stem from a lack of information, emphasizing that the company is effectively planning to meet its commitments [9] Group 3: Debt and Profitability Concerns - Oracle's debt has significantly increased to fund its AI and cloud infrastructure expansion, leading to a negative free cash flow of approximately $5.9 billion, marking its weakest performance in decades [11] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is currently much higher than industry standards, raising concerns among shareholders and bondholders [11] - Analysts express worries about Oracle's cloud business profitability, noting that its gross margins are significantly lower than some competitors [11] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Some analysts believe Oracle's stock may have been oversold, indicating a potential buying opportunity as technical indicators suggest it is in an oversold state [12] - Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue surged by 52% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for AI workloads, with RPO increasing by 41% to $138 billion [13] - The overall analyst sentiment remains positive, with 32 out of 45 analysts rating Oracle as a buy or higher, anticipating cloud growth exceeding 40% in fiscal year 2026 [13]