能化夜盘低位反弹：申万期货早间评论-20251127

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity has remained stable across most of its 12 districts, with two districts reporting slight declines and one district showing slight growth. The overall outlook remains unchanged, but there are increasing risks of economic slowdown in the coming months [1] - A joint announcement from six departments outlines a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to optimize the supply structure by 2027, creating three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1][8] Financial Market Insights - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the communication sector leading gains while the defense and military sector lagged. The market's trading volume reached 1.80 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 3.99 billion yuan to 24,462.88 billion yuan [2][11] - The market is expected to see a shift towards a more balanced style as short-term trading dynamics and defensive capital needs influence performance. The technology sector is anticipated to be a long-term focus, especially as economic pressures remain [2][11] Commodity Market Analysis - The double焦 (coke and coking coal) market showed weak performance, with total coking coal positions remaining stable. Supply recovery is noted, with coal imports exceeding last year's levels. Demand for steel products has increased, leading to a significant reduction in overall inventory [3][21] - In the oil market, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are now in effect, and there are ongoing diplomatic discussions regarding the Ukraine conflict. The overall downward trend in oil prices is expected to continue [3][13][14] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a slowdown in export inspections, with a significant decrease in inspections for China compared to last year. Domestic soybean meal inventory remains high, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in prices [23] - The palm oil market is supported by concerns over production due to adverse weather conditions, despite a decrease in export volumes. The soybean oil market is under pressure from increased supply [24] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with expectations of a gradual recovery in shipping through the Suez Canal. Freight rates have decreased, reflecting market adjustments as the year-end approaches [27]