碳酸锂

Price Outlook - The short-term price trend is expected to be volatile, with no new highs anticipated within the year. Future trends are upward, but the degree of supply-demand mismatch will influence price levels, leading to cautious views on absolute price heights [1]. Demand and Supply Analysis - In the short term, demand is projected to see a slight month-on-month increase in production next month. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, subsequent production (demand) may experience a slight decline, making sustained net demand increases unlikely. On the supply side, high prices are leading to an influx of overseas mines, coupled with increased expectations for the resumption of production at a major mine in Jiangxi, resulting in a gradual increase in weekly supply. Monthly inventory reduction may continue to narrow or even halt [2]. Mid-term Industry Outlook - The lithium carbonate industry is currently in a dual growth phase for both supply and demand. The extent of price rebound will largely depend on the degree of supply-demand mismatch during peak seasons. However, the industry remains cautious about absolute price heights due to existing inventory held by overseas mining companies, which will gradually be released. Additionally, under high price conditions, previously suspended or underperforming overseas mining capacities are expected to come back online, leading to significant supply increases that may suppress the extent of price rebounds [3].