是说芯语·2025-11-27 03:49Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential inclusion of eight Chinese companies in the 1260H list, which could impact their collaboration with the U.S. Department of Defense, although the immediate market reaction appears to be rational and unaffected by the news [2][3][4][7]. Group 1: News Context - The news regarding the 1260H list is not old; it was first reported despite the letter's date being October 7 [3]. - The Pentagon has identified Alibaba Group, Baidu, and BYD as companies that may assist the Chinese military, but no new developments have been reported since the initial claim [4]. - The Deputy Secretary of Defense, Stephen Feinberg, mentioned that five additional companies are also under consideration for inclusion, indicating that the list is not finalized [4]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - The core impact of the 1260H list is to restrict companies on the list from collaborating with the U.S. Department of Defense, but it does not directly prohibit partnerships with U.S. commercial firms, although it may create indirect obstacles [4]. - The market response to the news has been measured, as companies like Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng did not show significant negative impact following the announcement [7]. Group 3: Industry Demand Forecast - According to GFHK's latest data, NVIDIA is expected to require 20 million 1.6T optical modules next year, while Google will need 12 million, raising questions about supply if companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are affected [4]. - The demand forecast for optical modules shows a significant increase, with shipments projected to rise from 2 million in 2023 to 43 million by 2026 for 800G modules [5].