美联储褐皮书凸显美联储困境：就业市场疲软与通胀压力并存

Economic Activity and Employment - Recent economic activity in the U.S. has nearly stagnated, with a weakening job market and persistent cost and price pressures, presenting a dual risk for the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that half of the employers across twelve Federal Reserve districts have reported a decline in hiring intentions, influenced by the recent government shutdown and the application of AI [2][6] Inflation and Cost Pressures - Rising tariffs and healthcare costs are increasing corporate expenditures, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns. High-income consumer spending remains resilient, while middle and low-income households are tightening their budgets [3][10] - Employers are experiencing increased input costs due to tariffs, which are pressuring profit margins. Many businesses report financial strain as a result of these rising costs [11][21] Labor Market Dynamics - Although layoffs have increased, many companies are opting for hiring freezes, replacement hiring, and natural attrition to manage workforce levels. Some employers are adjusting work hours to align with fluctuating business volumes [6][8] - Wage growth is moderate overall, but sectors like manufacturing, construction, and healthcare are facing greater wage pressures due to tight labor supply [9] Consumer Spending Trends - Overall consumer spending has declined, with a notable K-shaped recovery where high-end retail spending remains strong while middle and low-end consumption faces greater challenges. The government shutdown has negatively impacted consumer purchasing decisions [15][16][20] - The automotive market has seen specific challenges, particularly with a decline in electric vehicle sales following the expiration of federal tax credits [18] Future Outlook - Businesses generally expect ongoing cost pressures, but there is divergence in recent price increase plans. The outlook for consumer spending remains cautious, with many consumers seeking discounts and showing reluctance to accept higher prices [14][19]