数据点评 | 利润走低的“三重拖累”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in industrial enterprise profits in October is primarily attributed to a high base effect, weakened profit margins, and declining revenue, collectively referred to as the "triple drag" [2][10][79]. Revenue - In October, industrial enterprise revenue showed a notable decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous month. The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, fell by 6.8 percentage points to -1.4% [1][7][81]. - All three major industrial chains—petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer—experienced significant revenue declines, with year-on-year reductions of 6.3 percentage points each, resulting in respective growth rates of -3.4%, -1.7%, and 1.8% [2][16][81]. Profitability - Industrial enterprise profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 27.1 percentage points to -5.5% in October, with the operating profit margin dropping by 20.9 percentage points to -6.1% [5][44][83]. - The profit margin decline is largely driven by increased expense ratios and other loss items, which saw significant reductions compared to the previous month [2][10][79]. Industry Analysis - Industries such as non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and general equipment faced the most significant profit declines, with respective reductions of 2, 1.4, and 1.9 percentage points, leading to profits of -0.6%, -0.5%, and -0.8% [3][19][20]. - The electrical machinery, computer communication, and automotive sectors also experienced notable profit declines, with respective reductions of 3, 2.7, and 1.5 percentage points [3][20]. Cost Structure - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures, with the cost rate reaching 85.6%, a relative high compared to recent years. The cost's negative impact on profit remained significant at -3.2% [3][27][82]. - The metallurgy and consumer chains reported cost rates of 86.1% and 85.1%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and stability compared to the previous year [27][28]. Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is being intensified, showing some improvement in the low capacity utilization issue. However, cost pressures for industrial enterprises remain high, necessitating further monitoring of policy effects [4][42][82]. - The ongoing profitability pressure is primarily due to rigid cost pressures stemming from downstream involution-style investments, with expectations for gradual alleviation of cost pressures and potential profit recovery in the future [4][42][82].