美联储12月降息预期再度升温

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the increasing likelihood of a rate cut in December, driven by changing economic indicators and comments from key Federal Reserve officials [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets declined, European markets remained flat, while U.S. markets showed resilience, fueled by renewed hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]. - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 75.5%, according to speculators [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent comments from John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, suggest a potential rate cut due to a cooling labor market and reduced inflation risks [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has complicated the collection of employment data, but analysts believe the labor market is weakening, as indicated by rising unemployment rates and declining job creation [5]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs reports that the delayed employment data may confirm a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [5]. - Analysts from Pantheon Macroeconomics assert that Williams' comments strongly indicate a forthcoming rate cut, given his historical alignment with majority opinions within the FOMC [5].