暴跌40%！软银成为“OpenAI链”风向标

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of SoftBank Group has become a key indicator of market confidence in the non-public company OpenAI, amid rising concerns over overvaluation in the AI sector and changes in industry competition dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: SoftBank's Stock Performance - Since the end of October, SoftBank's stock has plummeted approximately 40%, resulting in a market value loss of over 16 trillion yen (about 102 billion USD) [4]. - The recent sell-off is primarily driven by market anxiety regarding competitive pressures faced by OpenAI, especially following the release of Alphabet's highly praised Gemini 3.0 model [4][11]. - The deep exposure to the AI sector previously brought significant gains to SoftBank, with unrealized gains of 14.6 billion USD from its investment in OpenAI contributing to a surprising net profit of 2.5 trillion yen in the second fiscal quarter [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Risks - SoftBank's founder Masayoshi Son is preparing to double down on investments in OpenAI and its supporting infrastructure, aiming to position SoftBank as a core player in an OpenAI-led AI ecosystem [7][8]. - The market's sharp reaction indicates that investors are reassessing the risks and returns of this high-stakes gamble [8]. - Analysts highlight that SoftBank's stock price decline reflects its sensitivity to OpenAI's valuation rather than a general downturn in the AI market [11]. Group 3: AI Chip and Infrastructure Investments - Masayoshi Son's ambitions extend beyond being a financial investor in OpenAI; he is actively building a comprehensive AI ecosystem through acquisitions and investments [13]. - SoftBank has sold shares in Nvidia and Oracle to raise funds for acquiring AI chip design companies, holding nearly 90% of Arm and recently acquiring Ampere Computing LLC for 6.5 billion USD [13]. - Challenges exist in this chip strategy, particularly with the growing penetration of open-source architecture RISC-V in AI chip design [13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Logic - The volatility in SoftBank's stock reflects a shift in AI investment logic, moving away from indiscriminate buying of AI-related stocks to a more selective approach [15]. - Reports indicate a market differentiation, with companies like Meta Platforms Inc. planning to use Google's Gemini AI chips, raising concerns for Nvidia's business and affecting its Japanese suppliers [15]. - Conversely, some companies are benefiting from this shift, such as Toppan Holdings Inc., which saw an 11% stock increase due to its partnership with Broadcom in AI chip design [15].