【广发宏观王丹】10月工业企业利润同比回踩的原因解析

Core Insights - In October, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.8%, with a month-on-month decline of 3.3%, marking a return to negative growth since August 2024 [1][6][7] - The profit of these enterprises in October decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, leading to a cumulative profit growth rate slowing from 3.2% to 1.9% [1][8][9] Revenue and Profit Breakdown - The industrial added value, representing "quantity," fell from 6.5% to 4.9% year-on-year, influenced by weak construction demand and export declines [2][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI), representing "price," saw a slight narrowing of its decline to 2.1%, but this limited improvement could not offset the changes in quantity [2][12] - The revenue profit margin for January to October was 5.25%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a convergence in profit margins [2][12] Manufacturing Sector Performance - Cumulative profit growth in the manufacturing sector dropped from 9.9% to 7.7% year-on-year, with significant declines in consumer goods and midstream manufacturing sectors [3][18] - The profit growth of equipment manufacturing also decreased from 9.4% to 7.8% year-on-year [3][18] - Certain industries, such as coal and electronics, showed improved profit growth rates, correlating with recent price increases in these sectors [3][19] Inventory and Sales Dynamics - Both nominal and actual inventories of industrial products increased significantly, with the sales-to-inventory ratio at 96.4%, down from 96.7% [4][21] - The inventory of finished products grew by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a rising trend in stock levels [22][23] Financial Health of Industrial Enterprises - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [26][27] - The growth rates of assets, liabilities, and owners' equity all saw a decline in October, reflecting a weakening trend in manufacturing investment [26][27] Overall Economic Context - The negative year-on-year changes in revenue and profit in October reflect a short-term pullback in economic data across various sectors [5][27] - The November Business Confidence Index (BCI) indicates continued downward pressure on profits, with potential for further adjustments in the coming months [5][28]