东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-11-27 14:33Investment Highlights - October sales: Production, wholesale, retail, and export all exceeded expectations. 1) Production: October heavy truck production was 104,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +78.4% and +2.6% respectively. 2) Wholesale: October heavy truck wholesale sales were 106,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +60.0% and +0.6% respectively. 3) Retail: October heavy truck terminal sales were 70,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +56.6% and -15.9% respectively. 4) Export: October heavy truck export sales were 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +43.8% and +4.8% respectively. 5) Inventory: October industry-wide inventory increased by 0.09 thousand units, with enterprise inventory decreasing by 0.23 thousand units and channel inventory increasing by 0.32 thousand units. The total inventory coefficient for October was calculated to be 1.8, which is considered reasonable [3][14][28]. Industry Structure - In terms of usage, October saw better performance for engineering vehicles compared to logistics vehicles. October engineering vehicle terminal sales were 7,400 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +63.0% and -14.9% respectively. Logistics vehicle sales were 62,600 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +55.9% and -16.0% respectively. The proportion of engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles in October was 10.5% and 89.5% respectively, with engineering vehicle proportion increasing by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month, while logistics vehicle proportion decreased by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points [3][36]. Market Share Dynamics - In the overall vehicle market, Foton's domestic market share increased year-on-year, while the export shares of Sinotruk, Foton, and Dongfeng also rose year-on-year. For October 2025, the domestic terminal sales market shares for Jiefang, Dongfeng, Sinotruk, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and Foton were 21.5%, 17.9%, 17.9%, 11.0%, and 13.8% respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -2.2, -2.8, -0.06, +0.7, and +3.4 percentage points respectively [4][50]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai held the top market share in the engine segment, with a slight increase month-on-month. In October, the terminal market shares for Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Sinotruk, and Yuchai were 20.5%, 17.1%, 14.7%, 9.3%, and 11.4% respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -7.0, -1.4, -0.4, +2.1, and -2.1 percentage points respectively [5][61]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In October, natural gas heavy truck sales reached 21,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +137.6% and -10.0% respectively. The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 30.1%, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 10.3 and 2.0 percentage points [3][37].