“七赔二平一赚”的迷思

Group 1 - The article discusses the prevalent belief in the investment community that the odds of losing money are high, often summarized as "seven losses, two breakeven, one profit" [1][2] - It argues that this statistic is misleading due to the inclusion of inexperienced investors who lack proper research and commitment [1] - The author suggests that serious investors who dedicate significant time to research could potentially see better outcomes, possibly "seven profits, two breakeven, one loss" [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced a significant outflow of capital, with an annual loss of 1.3 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2023, attributed to factors like IPOs, share reductions, and fees [2] - The article proposes that if measures are taken to limit IPOs and encourage dividends, the market could shift towards a zero-sum game, improving the profit-loss ratio [2] - It also suggests learning from international markets to enhance short-selling mechanisms and protect investor rights, which could lead to a more favorable investment environment [2] Group 3 - The article highlights that a large portion of dividends is distributed among government and institutional investors, leaving retail investors with minimal returns [3] - It points out that most retail investors are not satisfied with small gains and often engage in frequent trading, which leads to additional costs and losses [3][4] - The overall sentiment is that the majority of retail investors are unlikely to achieve long-term profitability due to emotional trading and lack of discipline [4] Group 4 - The article presents anecdotal evidence from discussions with individuals in leadership positions, indicating that even educated and experienced investors often face losses in the stock market [7] - It emphasizes that the perception of profitability among a small group of successful investors does not reflect the broader reality of the market [7] - The narrative suggests that the majority of investors, regardless of their background, struggle to achieve consistent gains [7] Group 5 - The article concludes that the investment landscape is inherently challenging, with many strategies failing to yield positive results [10][11] - It argues that relying solely on time and effort without a sound strategy is unlikely to lead to success in the market [10][11] - The discussion implies that the market is structured in a way that favors larger players, making it difficult for individual investors to succeed [15][16]