半导体行业观察·2025-11-28 01:22Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is engaged in a strategic competition centered around the construction of 2nm wafer fabs, seen as a critical threshold for AI-era computing sovereignty, with major players like TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and Japan's Rapidus making significant investments and advancements in this area [1][20]. TSMC's Expansion Plans - TSMC has upgraded its plan for 2nm fabs in Taiwan from seven to ten, with an estimated cost of approximately NT$300 billion (US$80-100 billion) per fab, totaling around NT$900 billion for the additional three [2]. - The company is also expanding its overseas presence, increasing its investment in Arizona to US$165 billion, citing insufficient local capacity to meet AI customer demands [2][3]. - TSMC's strategy focuses on serving top-tier clients in AI and high-performance computing, ensuring long-term capacity even amid macroeconomic fluctuations [2][3]. Intel's 18A Technology - Intel's 18A process technology is positioned to compete with TSMC's 2nm offerings, with recent reports indicating improved yield rates and a path to mass production by Q4 2025 [6][8]. - The U.S. government has become Intel's largest single shareholder through the CHIPS Act, providing significant capital support, while NVIDIA has also invested US$5 billion in Intel [8][9]. - Intel's success in the 2nm race will depend not only on the 18A technology but also on its ability to establish itself as a competitive foundry [9]. Samsung's Progress - Samsung's 2nm process yield has improved to 55-60%, with plans to increase monthly production from 8,000 wafers in 2024 to 21,000 by the end of 2025 [11]. - The company has secured a significant contract with Tesla for AI6 chip production, valued at US$16.5 billion over eight years, which is crucial for enhancing Samsung's position in the U.S. foundry market [11][12]. - Samsung aims to regain profitability in its foundry business within two years, leveraging high ASP orders to support its 2nm production ramp-up [12][13]. Japan's Rapidus Initiative - Rapidus, a smaller player, is focusing on establishing domestic 2nm production capabilities with government support, aiming for mass production by the second half of the 2027 fiscal year [15][17]. - The company plans to build a second factory in Hokkaido, with significant investment expected from the Japanese government and private sector [17]. - Rapidus's strategy involves a unique approach to wafer processing, utilizing single-wafer techniques to enhance yield and defect control [18]. Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The race to build 2nm fabs is driven by technological, economic, and geopolitical factors, with 2nm seen as essential for AI infrastructure [20][21]. - Major investments are being supported by government policies and partnerships with leading customers, making the establishment of 2nm fabs a national strategic priority [21]. - The concentration of 2nm production capacity in a few regions raises concerns about supply chain resilience and geopolitical risks [22]. Industry Outlook - The construction of 2nm fabs is expected to benefit semiconductor equipment suppliers significantly, as these facilities require advanced manufacturing technologies [24]. - The expansion of 2nm capacity will also drive demand for advanced packaging and testing solutions, essential for AI chip production [24]. - However, the industry faces uncertainties regarding sustained demand and the potential for overcapacity leading to financial pressures in the future [22][24].