国泰海通｜有色：大鹏一日同风起——金属行业2026年年度策略

Group 1: Copper and Aluminum - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased physical demand from AI investments, particularly in data centers and power grids, leading to a sustained upward trend in copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand imbalance persists, and the valuation of the copper sector remains relatively low, suggesting a positive investment opportunity [1] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, which will support aluminum prices and allow leading companies to achieve good profit levels due to their resource management and supply chain strategies [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is driving some countries to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and increase their gold reserves, a trend that is expected to continue despite easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are accelerating this process, with expectations of rising precious metal prices in 2025 and beyond [2] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections may lead to more aggressive rate cuts from the new Federal Reserve chair, further supporting the bullish outlook for precious metals [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - The demand for lithium is anticipated to return to a tight balance by 2026, driven by growth in energy storage and power demand, with a projected demand growth rate of approximately 50% from energy storage and nearly 20% from power batteries [3] - The global lithium demand is expected to grow by 24.2%, while supply growth is estimated at 18.1%, indicating a shift from a loose balance to a tight balance in the lithium market [3] - The upward trend in lithium prices is expected as the market transitions to a tighter supply-demand scenario [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Materials - Domestic rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with expectations for a continued upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [4] - The demand for neodymium-iron-boron is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29% growth from the electric vehicle sector and 18% from wind power [4] - The tightening of supply, coupled with rising overseas prices, is likely to enhance the profitability and valuation of domestic rare earth magnet manufacturers [4]