国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-28 08:56Core Viewpoint - The real estate bond market has potential for yield exploration in the current low interest rate environment, but the fundamentals of the sector still require further improvement, and bond valuations may experience increased volatility due to event impacts, with an overall strategy recommendation leaning towards cautious defense [1][4]. Group 1: Company Debt Situation - Vanke announced a creditor meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004," which has a total issuance of 2 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 3%, maturing on December 15, 2025 [1]. - As of November 13, Vanke has repaid 19.571 billion yuan of domestic public debt in 2025, with a remaining balance of 20.316 billion yuan in domestic bonds and 1.3 billion USD in offshore bonds [2]. - Vanke's major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided substantial financial support, totaling nearly 30 billion yuan from February to November 2025, primarily for repaying Vanke's publicly issued bond principal and interest [2]. Group 2: Industry Policy and Market Conditions - The real estate sector is experiencing simultaneous policy support and industry adjustment, with 2025 policies focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting recovery, including easing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing credit [3]. - In October, the sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing decreased year-on-year by 18.8% and 24.3%, respectively, due to a high base effect from last year's policy changes [3]. - New construction, construction, and completion areas in October saw year-on-year declines of 29.5%, 9.4%, and 28.2%, respectively, as developers prioritize ongoing projects amid significant financial pressure [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Bond Market Overview - From January to November 2025, a total of 593.681 billion yuan in real estate bonds were issued, while 624.609 billion yuan were repaid, resulting in a net financing of -30.928 billion yuan [4]. - The current non-default real estate bond scale is approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, with a high overall valuation level; about 442.7 billion yuan, or 38.4%, has a yield to maturity of over 2.3% [4]. - The investment strategy suggests that while there is some yield exploration potential in the current low interest rate environment, the sector's fundamentals need improvement, and a cautious defensive approach is recommended, focusing on high-quality central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds with short durations [4].