【招银研究|House View】国内经济逆风加大，A股迎来布局窗口——招商银行研究院House View（2025年12月）

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic environment in the US, highlighting the potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [13][14][16] - The US government shutdown has ended, easing liquidity pressures on the dollar, but concerns about future shutdowns remain due to high fiscal pressures [15][19] - Employment data shows a mixed picture, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% while non-farm payrolls have shown some recovery, indicating a complex labor market [19][21][26] Group 2 - The European economy is experiencing a "weak recovery," with strong service sector performance but declining manufacturing, particularly in Germany and France [27][28] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in December, with a high probability of no further cuts due to stable inflation around 2% [28][30] - Political instability in France poses risks to economic stability, particularly regarding the upcoming budget vote [28][29] Group 3 - Japan's government has approved a significant fiscal stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately $135.4 billion), aimed at addressing inflation and economic challenges [36] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential rate hikes not expected until early 2026 [37][38] - Tensions in Japan-China relations are impacting the tourism sector, which is crucial for Japan's economy [38] Group 4 - The US stock market is expected to recover in the short term due to a favorable earnings outlook and supportive monetary policy, despite concerns about high valuations and potential bubbles in AI investments [40][41][47] - The bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of a slight decline in yields as the Fed continues its easing cycle [48] - The dollar may face downward pressure due to rising unemployment and potential changes in Fed leadership, while the euro is expected to remain supported by stable inflation and economic conditions [52][56] Group 5 - China's economy is under pressure, with key indicators showing weaker-than-expected performance, particularly in exports and domestic demand [64][70] - The government is expected to accelerate fiscal spending to support economic growth, with a focus on infrastructure and social welfare [79][80] - Monetary policy is shifting towards a focus on interest rate adjustments rather than strict quantity targets, aiming to optimize the financial structure [86][88]