美联储的AI困局：学格林斯潘是“死路”，不降息是“绝路”

Core Viewpoint - The AI revolution presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve: lowering interest rates due to anticipated productivity gains could be risky in the current inflationary environment, while not lowering rates may lead to forced hikes in 2026 if inflation resurges, potentially bursting asset bubbles [1][3][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a predicament where emulating Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering rates could also result in severe market consequences [3][6]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers rates based on expected productivity gains from AI, it risks ignoring the current inflation environment, which is less favorable than in the 1990s [3][5]. - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates and inflation returns in 2026, it may be forced to tighten policy, which could inadvertently trigger a market collapse [3][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Greenspan's strategy of "cleaning up rather than intervening" suggests that the Federal Reserve may not actively burst bubbles but could inadvertently do so through its policies [4][13]. - The report highlights that potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chair are attempting to position themselves as successors to Greenspan, advocating for rate cuts based on the AI revolution [5][6]. - Historical data shows that during the 1990s, productivity growth was underestimated, leading to a significant increase in interest rates when inflation concerns arose, which ultimately contributed to the bursting of the internet bubble [5][11]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - Three critical questions will determine the Federal Reserve's policy path: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector are inflationary [8]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains similar to those seen in the 1990s [10]. 3. The balance between AI's deflationary effects and its potential to raise equilibrium interest rates [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Implications of AI - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [11][12]. - However, the surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may push up equilibrium interest rates, necessitating a careful balance in monetary policy [11][12]. - The report indicates that the actual benefits of AI may primarily accrue to workers rather than corporations, contrasting with the historical narrative of the 1990s [12].