Novo Nordisk(US:NVO) 凤凰网财经·2025-11-28 12:54Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging risks associated with the drug Semaglutide, previously marketed as a "weight loss miracle," highlighting serious side effects, including vision loss and gastrointestinal issues, which could undermine its popularity and market position [1][2][3]. Group 1: Vision Risks and Legal Implications - A recent report revealed that 43 patients who used Ozempic or Wegovy have filed for compensation due to a rare eye disease called NAION, which can lead to vision loss [5][9]. - The first five cases have resulted in compensation totaling nearly 900,000 RMB, indicating the potential for significant financial liabilities for the company [6][7]. - With an estimated 50 million users globally by the end of 2025, the risk translates to approximately 5,000 potential victims based on a 1 in 10,000 incidence rate [9][10]. Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Position - Despite the controversies, Semaglutide remains a significant revenue driver for Novo Nordisk, with total sales reaching $25.462 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 24% year-on-year increase [25]. - The weight loss version, Wegovy, has shown remarkable growth, with sales of $8.609 billion, marking a 54% increase year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing segment [26]. Group 3: Challenges in the Chinese Market - Novo Nordisk's revenue in China was approximately $2.237 billion, with an 8% growth rate, lagging behind the company's overall double-digit growth [27]. - The company aims to increase its growth rate in China to over 12% by 2026, implementing significant organizational changes and focusing on retail and online platforms [28][30]. - The competitive landscape in China's GLP-1 market has intensified, with Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide posing a direct threat due to its comparable weight loss effects and potentially milder side effects [32]. Group 4: Patent Expiry and Competition - As patents for Semaglutide's indications are set to expire post-2026, domestic companies are ramping up efforts to develop generic versions, with multiple applications already submitted for approval [34]. - A total of 27 companies are competing in this space, indicating an impending price war and market share battle [34][35].