铜价步入1万美元时代

Core Viewpoint - Copper is increasingly recognized as an essential resource for industries such as data centers and electric vehicles, with demand expected to continue expanding, leading to a consensus on its critical role in the modern economy [4][5]. Supply Concerns - The international price of copper is at historical highs, driven by investment speculation on ore shortages and demand from data centers. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month futures reached $11,200 per ton on October 29, marking a new high since May 2024 [5][7]. - Concerns over ore supply have intensified due to recent mining accidents, including a landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and incidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, leading to multiple supply disruptions this year [5][9]. Price Projections - Goldman Sachs has projected that $10,000 will become a new price floor for copper, with expectations that prices will fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 from 2026 to 2027 due to supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like artificial intelligence [7][10]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a 3.0% increase in copper consumption in 2025 and a 2.1% increase in 2026, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a more than 50% increase in demand by 2050 under a net-zero emissions scenario [5]. Production Adjustments - Japanese smelting companies have begun to reduce copper production, with Mitsubishi Materials announcing a 14% decrease in output for the period from October 2025 to March 2026 due to deteriorating ore procurement conditions [10]. - The ongoing supply issues may lead to further production cuts outside Japan, potentially impacting the availability of copper and driving up prices for end products [10].