UBS(US:UBS) 第一财经·2025-11-29 02:23Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in copper prices, driven by supply shortages and geopolitical factors, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming years due to structural supply constraints and rising demand [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose over 4%, surpassing $11,200, marking a historical high due to supply shortages and expectations of increased demand [3][4]. - The current copper supply chain is experiencing a historic tightness, influenced by mining accidents in Indonesia and Chile, leading to a shift in pricing power back to miners [4]. - Miners are pushing for record low processing fees from smelters, with some companies like Aurubis AG refusing to accept excessively low fees, indicating a potential conflict in pricing negotiations [4][5]. Geopolitical Influences - U.S. tariffs are impacting market dynamics, with Codelco's premiums for U.S. market prices reaching historical highs, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals and additional costs [5]. - The expectation of continued refined copper flowing to the U.S. market due to tariff policies could exacerbate shortages in other regions, with predictions that U.S. copper inventories may account for 90% of global stocks [5][6]. Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2026, predicting prices to reach $11,500 per ton by March and $12,500 by December, driven by ongoing supply risks and declining inventories [8][9]. - The anticipated copper market deficit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of a 230,000-ton deficit in 2025 and nearly doubling to 407,000 tons in 2026 [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs projects a long-term copper price of $15,000 per ton by 2035, citing resource limitations and increasing demand in key sectors as primary drivers [10]. Demand Growth - Global copper demand is expected to maintain a growth rate of 2.8% in the coming years, supported by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers [10].