“愚蠢资金”减少，主动策略是否还有机会？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate between active and passive investment strategies, highlighting the increasing dominance of passive funds in the market and the challenges faced by active funds in achieving excess returns as market conditions evolve [5][6][30]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of Q3 this year, the scale of passive equity funds reached 4.54 trillion yuan, significantly surpassing active equity funds at 3.86 trillion yuan, with the gap continuing to widen [5]. - The reduction of irrational participants in the market is making it increasingly difficult for active investors to achieve excess returns [7][31]. Group 2: Challenges for Active Investment - The transparency of information has improved, making it easier for investors to access financial data and company dynamics, which reduces the opportunities for unique insights [11]. - The growing proportion of passive funds means that more investors are opting for rule-based index allocations, leading to fewer mispriced opportunities in the market [12]. - The professional level of market participants has increased, making it harder for active funds to rely on others' mistakes for profit [13]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape for Active Funds - Active investment faces intensified competition, with many funds clustering around the same sectors and leading stocks, resulting in a strong herd effect [20]. - The alignment of assessment cycles among institutions leads to a lack of long-term investment practices, causing a homogenization of strategies [18]. - The increasing scale of public funds limits operational flexibility, making it challenging to implement differentiated strategies [19]. Group 4: Opportunities in Active Investment - Despite the challenges, approximately 98% of active equity funds achieved positive returns in Q3, with a median return rate of 22.80%, indicating that opportunities still exist [22]. - Investors considering active funds should focus on managers with stable styles and transparent holdings to avoid excessive volatility [23][24]. - Active funds typically charge management fees of 1%-1.5%, and managers need to generate excess returns that exceed these costs to be worthwhile [25][26]. - Successful active managers often maintain a clear investment philosophy and focus on risk control, which can provide a competitive edge [27]. Group 5: Long-Term Investment Perspective - The trend towards passive investment is expected to continue, but this does not mean that active funds have lost all value; they may still be suitable for investors with a long-term perspective and clear investment frameworks [30][32]. - The core of investing for most ordinary investors should be about managing emotions rather than trying to beat the market, with index funds providing a cost-effective way to achieve average market returns [32].