美联储“救市”成转折点！11月的最后一周，各类资产“强劲反弹”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant rebound, rising 3.7% in the week, marking its best weekly performance in six months and the strongest Thanksgiving week performance since the 2008 financial crisis [7][8]. - U.S. Treasury prices increased, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below the critical 4% psychological level [8]. - Bitcoin rebounded over 7% from its November low, surpassing $90,000, indicating a notable recovery in market risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The key turning point for the market was the dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, which led to a significant increase in the market's expectation of a December rate cut from approximately 30% to 50%, and eventually to 80% [3][10]. - Analysts suggest that the market's dramatic shift in sentiment is largely attributed to strong expectations regarding a change in Federal Reserve policy [10][12]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Analysts believe that despite ongoing adjustments in global asset structures, ample liquidity provides a solid foundation for risk assets, effectively limiting the potential for systemic declines [5][19]. - The concept of "fiscal put options" is introduced, where the U.S. Treasury injects liquidity into the market through specific debt issuance strategies, countering the Fed's quantitative tightening [20]. - A key liquidity indicator, "remaining liquidity," is currently positive, suggesting that when this indicator is high and rising, the downside risk for the stock market is effectively mitigated [21][22].