美联储的AI困局：学格林斯潘是“死路”，不降息是“绝路”

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where following Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering interest rates could result in severe consequences for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights that AI could either lead to a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or push up the equilibrium interest rate (r*), creating two opposing monetary policy paths [1]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates based solely on the expectation of increased productivity from AI, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past, particularly given the current inflation environment is less favorable than in the 1990s [1][5]. - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates, it may inadvertently push the market into a crisis, especially if inflation resurfaces as a primary concern by 2026 [1][2]. Group 2: Greenspan's Legacy - The report discusses Greenspan's dual legacy, where potential successors to the Federal Reserve chair are attempting to position themselves as inheritors of his policies, citing the AI revolution as a justification for lowering rates [3][4]. - Greenspan's 1996 decision to delay rate hikes based on underestimated productivity growth is noted as a pivotal moment, which was later contradicted by his 2000 shift towards tightening monetary policy due to rising equilibrium rates [5][6]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - Three critical questions are identified that will shape the Federal Reserve's policy direction: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector will be inflationary, with concerns that increased energy consumption from data centers could pose inflation risks [8]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains akin to those seen in the 1990s, with estimates of AI's contribution to productivity varying significantly among experts [10]. 3. Who will benefit from productivity gains, as historical trends suggest that workers, rather than corporations, may reap the rewards [11][12]. Group 4: AI's Economic Impact - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [12]. - However, the surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may also elevate equilibrium interest rates, necessitating careful monitoring by the Federal Reserve to avoid overly loose monetary policy [12][14]. Group 5: Market Implications - The Federal Reserve's traditional approach of "cleaning up after the fact" rather than preemptively intervening in asset bubbles is emphasized, suggesting that while they may not actively burst bubbles, they could do so inadvertently [14][15]. - The current inflation dynamics are less favorable than those in the 1990s, which could lead to higher risks if the Federal Reserve attempts to replicate Greenspan's strategies in a different economic context [15].