雪球·2025-11-30 06:56Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has been attributed to dovish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials, indicating a potential interest rate cut in December, which has significantly increased market expectations for lower rates [6][10]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - On a recent Friday, COMEX gold rose by 1.59% and London gold increased by 1.48%. COMEX silver surged by 6.06%, while London silver saw a rise of 5.66% [4][6]. - The CME Group experienced a significant outage lasting nearly 11 hours due to a cooling system issue at a third-party data center, coinciding with a critical moment for silver prices, which were breaking historical highs [7][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged to 86.4%, up from around 40% a week prior, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates stands at 13.6% [6]. - Key factors driving the price increases include declines in nominal and real interest rates, ongoing deficit concerns, and a potential further weakening of the US dollar [6]. Group 3: Institutional Insights and Predictions - Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold compared to silver, platinum, and palladium, citing gold's higher certainty as a long-term investment [10][12]. - The firm noted that from the beginning of 2025, silver, platinum, and palladium have seen price increases of 66%, 65%, and 50% respectively, driven by inflows from private investors following Fed rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Central Bank Behavior and Future Trends - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached approximately 7.409 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), marking a continuous increase for 12 months [17]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [18]. - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue, with an estimated 1000 tons projected for 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant purchases [20].