2026年GDP增速目标有必要仍定为5%左右｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].