业界大佬：全球铜都在流向美国，这是铜多头“一次大好机会”

Group 1 - Kostas Bintas, head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, reiterated a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning of further depletion of copper inventories globally as large amounts of metal flood into the U.S. market [1] - Bintas described the current situation as a "great opportunity" for copper bulls, noting that profitable U.S. arbitrage trading is returning, leading to supply shortages outside the U.S. and driving copper prices higher [2] - He emphasized that from a mathematical perspective, the only answer to the current trends of tight supply and rising prices is that even Chinese buyers will have to pay higher premiums to secure supply [3] Group 2 - Mercuria expects a significant increase in U.S. copper imports in the coming months, predicting that the import rate in Q1 2026 will match the record level of over 500,000 tons seen in Q2 2025 [4] - The copper market has experienced volatility this year, with U.S. copper prices soaring earlier in the year due to tariff threats, leading to a massive flow of metal into the U.S. from other regions [4] - Bintas believes the current market structure, characterized by weak demand and surplus yet rising prices, is a "special dynamic" that could lead to shortages in the Chinese market as metal continues to flow to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Bintas acknowledged that the bullish outlook is driven by U.S. policy, with the U.S. now being the largest copper consumer globally [5] - Market data shows that New York futures prices are significantly higher than London benchmark prices, leading to a bidding war among Asian buyers [5] - This market polarization has created a "dual-speed" mechanism, where LME and Shanghai copper contracts are primarily supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while metals deliverable to Comex enjoy high premiums [5] Group 4 - Traders have pushed up the premium for deliverable copper, with reports indicating some traders attempting to purchase Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices [7] - Chile's Codelco has recently proposed a benchmark premium of over $300 per ton to customers in South Korea and China, shocking Asian buyers [7] - Bintas predicts that while Chinese buyers are currently hesitant about high prices, they will eventually accept them, and the market will likely settle above a $200 premium [7]