国泰海通｜食饮：周期筑底，期待反转——牧业跟踪报告

Core Viewpoint - The price of raw milk is stabilizing and expected to rise in 2026, benefiting from the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased breeding, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side [2][3]. Group 1: Raw Milk Market - The price of raw milk has rebounded in September due to seasonal supply-demand mismatches and the implementation of new sterilized milk standards, leading to an initial balance in the industry supply-demand situation [2]. - As of now, China's self-sufficiency rate for raw milk exceeds 70%, with imports of dry dairy products equivalent to 15 million tons of fresh milk in 2024, accounting for 37% of raw milk production [2]. - Major companies like Yili and Mengniu are enhancing their processing capacity, which is expected to further boost the demand for raw milk as domestic substitution increases [2]. Group 2: Beef Cattle Market - The stock of breeding cows is continuously decreasing, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4% in national cattle stock as of Q3 2025, indicating a sustained supply gap and a favorable outlook for the beef cattle market until 2027 [3]. - The U.S. imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian beef starting August 2025, leading to increased imports of beef into China, which may continue to affect domestic demand positively [3]. - The investigation into beef import measures in China will conclude in January, and potential restrictions could further stimulate domestic beef demand [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The profitability of dairy farming is expected to improve due to a rebound in milk prices and a reduction in unit costs, with leading dairy companies potentially seeing gross margin improvements of over 6% to 10% with a 10% to 20% increase in sales prices [3]. - The fair value of breeding cows is anticipated to rise due to the rebound in milk prices, lower feeding costs, and optimization of herd structure [3].