热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - In November, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida officially launched an economic stimulus plan, leading to a depreciation of the yen and increased inflationary pressures. The combination of Japan's expansionary fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may pose risks for carry trade reversals, necessitating vigilance regarding the divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - Kishida's economic stimulus plan totals 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), slightly exceeding market expectations of 17 trillion yen. The fiscal deficit rate for Japan is projected to rise significantly in 2026 [3][9]. - The stimulus plan focuses on three main areas: 55% (11.7 trillion yen) for inflation subsidies and social welfare, 34% (7.2 trillion yen) for strategic industry investments, and 8% (1.7 trillion yen) for defense and diplomacy [3][15]. Group 2: Impact on GDP and Inflation - The expansionary fiscal policy may elevate Japan's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, although this contribution is lower than that of the U.S. and Germany. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase by 1.77 percentage points in 2026 [4][23]. - While inflation subsidies may temporarily lower overall inflation rates, they could simultaneously increase core inflation pressures in the medium term due to rising real incomes and a weaker yen [4][29]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Carry Trade Risks - The combination of high inflation and a weak yen makes it difficult for Kishida's expansionary fiscal policy to align with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which may lead to a tightening stance. Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan have raised expectations for interest rate hikes [5][35]. - The divergence between the yen and U.S. dollar interest rates may trigger a reversal in carry trades, as the yen has been systematically undervalued due to market pricing in fiscal expansion risks and policy uncertainties [5][41]. - Current conditions suggest that while the potential for carry trade reversals exists, the impact may be milder compared to previous instances, such as in August 2024 [5][47].