海外高频 | 美国9月零售弱于预期，黄金白银大幅上涨（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the overall increase in equity assets and significant rises in gold and silver prices, driven by weaker-than-expected retail sales data in the U.S. and other macroeconomic factors [2][3][10] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.7% and the Nasdaq index increased by 4.9% during the week, indicating a positive trend in developed market equities [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.0 basis points to 4.02%, while the dollar index fell by 0.7% to 99.44, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [2][21][32] Group 2 - The article discusses the signing of the "Genesis Plan" by Trump, aimed at doubling U.S. scientific productivity over ten years, although it lacks specific budget allocations [64] - The U.S. retail sales for September showed a mere 0.2% month-on-month increase, falling short of market expectations, influenced by pre-Labor Day spending [81] - The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve indicates a slight decline in employment and reduced labor demand, suggesting a potential increase in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December [77][84] Group 3 - The article notes that the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.65 trillion, with total expenditures at $7.29 trillion and tax revenues at $4.49 trillion [65][66] - The article highlights that the inflation expectations have decreased to 2.23%, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [54][57] - The article mentions that the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 3.9% growth rate for the U.S. economy in the third quarter [84]