三巨头的血泪教训

Core Viewpoint - The global photovoltaic industry is experiencing rapid expansion, but currently faces overcapacity, subsidy reductions, and trade barriers, leading to industry-wide losses. A recovery is anticipated by 2025, but third-quarter financial reports do not confirm a reversal yet. Despite this, A-share related stocks have shown more gains than losses in 2025 [5][11]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is projected to reach 2000 GW of installed capacity by 2030, surpassing thermal power as the largest energy source [5]. - The three major companies in the industry—LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei, and TCL Zhonghuan—are navigating through challenging times, with varying strategies of integration and specialization [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2022, revenues for Tongwei, LONGi, and TCL Zhonghuan were 142.2 billion, 129 billion, and 67 billion respectively. By 2023, revenues showed slight declines, with LONGi being the most resilient [8][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenues continued to decline, but the rate of decline is expected to stabilize [11]. - In terms of net profit, TCL Zhonghuan faced the most significant drop, with a net profit of only 25.7 billion in 2023, down from 64.8 billion in 2022 [12][14]. Group 3: Business Strategies - LONGi has adopted an integrated strategy, significantly increasing its downstream component and battery business, which now constitutes a larger portion of its revenue compared to upstream silicon products [28][30]. - TCL Zhonghuan has been more reluctant to embrace integration, focusing primarily on its silicon wafer business, which has led to substantial losses in recent years [19][26]. - Tongwei has successfully expanded into the component business, achieving significant revenue growth, but still faces challenges in maintaining profitability due to declining prices [42][46]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is divided into five segments: silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, modules, and power generation. The silicon wafer segment has the highest technical barriers [18]. - The debate between integration and specialization continues, with evidence suggesting that integrated companies may have better resilience during downturns compared to specialized firms [50].