黄金原油双反弹: 申万期货早间评论-20251201

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for November in China is 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI is 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index stands at 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating overall economic stability [1] - The China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) report suggests that by 2025, China will strive for breakthroughs to achieve expected development goals, with three new opportunities for economic development in 2026 [1] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the agricultural sector leading gains and the banking sector lagging [2] - The market turnover reached 1.60 trillion yuan, with a financing balance increase of 2.75 billion yuan to 24.55 trillion yuan [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on technological self-reliance, indicating a long-term direction for the technology sector [2] Commodity Insights Copper - Copper prices rose by 1.5% in the night session, with tight supply of concentrates and smelting profits at breakeven [18] - Investment in power grids continues to show positive growth, while real estate remains weak [18] Oil - SC crude oil prices increased by 1.11%, amid hopes for a peace process in Ukraine [12] - The International Energy Agency reported that OPEC's oil supply in October was 23.77 million barrels per day, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [12][13] Methanol - Methanol prices fell by 0.28%, with domestic production capacity operating at 75.74%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points [14] - Coastal methanol inventories decreased by 9,450 tons, a drop of 5.88% from the previous week [14] Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to remain volatile, with supply pressures from overseas and stable demand from the tire industry [15] Agricultural Products - The soybean planting rate in Brazil reached 78%, up from 69% the previous week, but U.S. soybean exports remain slow [20] - Palm oil prices are supported by production concerns due to adverse weather conditions in Indonesia [22] Financial Market - The 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.832%, with the central bank continuing to inject liquidity into the market [11] - The overall market sentiment is cautious as year-end approaches, with expectations for policy announcements to boost market confidence [11]