逆势跑出70%+超额，巴菲特真的没有骗我们…

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend strategies in investment, particularly highlighting the performance of cash flow ETFs compared to dividend ETFs and the broader market [5][15][21]. Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, marking a significant single-day decline for many investors [5]. - Since the beginning of April, following the US-China tariff war, the market and most sectors have shown considerable gains until early November, leading to increased risk exposure in investor portfolios [6]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" combining technology and dividend stocks has been effective, with technology stocks performing well this year and dividend assets providing a buffer during market corrections [7]. - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, with significant declines in the 万得全 A Index during three major adjustment periods [8][9]. ETF Performance - During market corrections, dividend ETFs and cash flow ETFs demonstrated strong defensive characteristics, with dividend ETFs showing smaller declines or even gains [9]. - Cash flow ETFs have outperformed in terms of cumulative return-to-drawdown ratios, with 14 out of the top 20 strategies being cash flow ETFs [12]. Long-term Performance - Since 2014, the 国证自由现金流 index has significantly outperformed both the 深证红利 and 沪深 300 indices, with a cumulative return of 445.14% compared to 139.64% and 91.14%, respectively [14]. - During the market downturn from early 2022 to late September 2023, the 国证自由现金流 index achieved a cumulative return of 36.35%, while the other indices experienced negative returns [14]. Index Composition - The 国证自由现金流 index focuses on companies with positive free cash flow, enterprise value, and operating cash flow, selecting the top 100 stocks based on free cash flow yield [17]. - The index includes a high proportion of state-owned enterprises, with significant market capitalization among its constituents [18]. Market Trends - The current investment climate favors cash flow assets due to rising geopolitical tensions and a shift towards lower-risk investments [20]. - The largest cash flow ETF, 华夏自由现金流 ETF, has over 7 billion yuan in assets, making it a preferred choice for investors [22]. Future Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that market style rotations occur every 2-3 years, with Q4 often being a critical period for portfolio adjustments [23]. - The focus on cash flow aligns with current policy trends aimed at stabilizing the economy, making cash flow-rich sectors attractive for investment [23].