金属周报 | 宏微观共振，铜价重返高位、白银飙至历史新高

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Trends - The macro environment showed an overall preference, benefiting the market, with improved geopolitical conditions following a phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S., and indications that Ukraine might accept a peace agreement [2][5] - The Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential for interest rate cuts in December, reversing previous market expectations that rates would remain unchanged [2][8] - Copper prices rebounded significantly due to favorable market conditions, with Chile's refined copper premium for exports to the U.S. reaching $500 per ton, and prices for exports to Europe and China at historical highs, raising expectations of a structural shortage in refined copper next year [6][9] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices saw significant increases, with COMEX gold rising by 3.83% and silver by 13.43% last week, while SHFE gold and silver also experienced gains of 2.91% and 8.96% respectively [4][25] - The market anticipates further upward movement in gold and silver prices, supported by dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials and an increased probability of a rate cut in December, which rose to 87% [8][25] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The COMEX copper price experienced a rebound, approaching 89,000 yuan per ton, driven by expectations of a copper shortage next year due to high premiums from Chile [9][10] - The copper market is facing potential structural shortages, with domestic long-term import volumes expected to decline significantly if Chile maintains its high premium levels [10][54] - The current high import long-term quotes may lead to a decrease in copper imports next year, amplifying the monthly gap in refined copper supply [10][54] Group 4: Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 410,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 393,000 ounces, indicating a tightening supply [40] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4.9 tons to 1,045 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 353 tons to 15,611 tons, reflecting growing investor interest in precious metals [45]