传日本断供光刻胶，可能严重影响中国半导体产业活力

Core Viewpoint - Japan has reportedly ceased exports of photoresist to China, which is seen as a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries and poses a threat to China's semiconductor industry [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor market is experiencing a general supply shortage, with demand for DRAM and HBM rising sharply, presenting an opportunity for Chinese companies to grow [3]. - The interruption of photoresist exports from Japan is expected to undermine the expansion plans of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers like CXMT and SMIC, as unstable procurement of core materials could hinder their market entry speed [3]. - The disruption may lead to a global supply chain restructuring and changes in overall price structures within the semiconductor market [3]. Group 2: Japan-China Relations and Supply Chain Dynamics - The export restrictions are seen as a move to increase the distance between Japanese and Chinese companies, while simultaneously strengthening the supply chain ties between South Korea and Japan [3]. - As Japan tightens its control over photoresist exports, South Korean companies are likely to seek more stable cooperation with Japanese SMEs, potentially positioning South Korea as a central axis in the semiconductor supply chain between China and Japan [3]. - The ongoing tensions are expected to have broader implications for the semiconductor supply chain, with South Korean industries closely monitoring the situation for potential impacts on their operations [3]. Group 3: Photoresist Market Overview - Photoresist is a critical material in semiconductor manufacturing, with Japan holding over 70% of the global market share, making it a key leverage point in geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The recent export halt is viewed as a significant setback for China's semiconductor ambitions, particularly affecting companies like SMIC and ChangXin Memory, which are looking to expand production amid rising DRAM prices [4]. - Japan's export controls may gradually extend beyond photoresist, as evidenced by the recent cessation of imports of Chinese DRAM by Japanese semiconductor firm Kioxia due to quality and safety concerns [4].