月产5000万只！当Labubu不再稀缺，泡泡玛特拿什么接棒？

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox," where the rapid expansion of production capacity is leading to Labubu transitioning from a scarce trendy IP to a mass consumer product, which will diminish its fashion appeal and secondary market prices [1][2]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's production capacity has surged from an average of 10 million units per month in the first half of the year to 50 million units per month by the end of the year, trading scarcity for short-term revenue growth [1][2]. - The strong growth driven by Labubu is masking significant risks of supply-demand reversal, with potential valuation pressures if Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new hits [1][3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Pricing Trends - Since August 2025, the premium for Labubu and other popular IPs has halved, with the price of Labubu's "hidden" variants dropping over 50% [6]. - Specific examples show that Labubu 1.0 "Exciting Macaron" hidden variant prices have fallen by 50%, while Labubu 3.0 "Love" variant prices have dropped by 81% [7]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Product Reception - The secondary market has seen immediate discounts on newly released products, indicating a slowdown in sales and a potential "fashion fatigue" among consumers [11][12][14]. - Negative feedback regarding design and quality has increased on social media, suggesting a decline in consumer interest in the Labubu IP [13][14]. Group 4: Valuation Scenarios - Deutsche Bank maintains a "Hold" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of 228 HKD, presenting two contrasting valuation scenarios based on Labubu's popularity trajectory [15]. - In a bearish scenario, if Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026, net profit could drop to 10.6 billion RMB, leading to a significant increase in implied P/E ratio to 23x [15]. - Conversely, in a bullish scenario with sustained growth and new IP launches, net profit could exceed 23.1 billion RMB, reducing the implied P/E ratio to 13x [16].