日本股债双杀！央行行长强烈暗示12月加息

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have heightened market speculation regarding a policy shift in December, with a clear hawkish signal indicating a potential interest rate hike if economic forecasts are met [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy Direction - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan will consider the pros and cons of raising policy rates at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, marking a significant shift from previous ambiguous language [1][4]. - He stated that if economic outlooks are realized, an interest rate hike will occur, and he aims to clarify the future path of rate increases after raising rates to 0.75% [1][4][10]. - The market interpreted Ueda's remarks as a strong indication of the end of the ultra-loose monetary policy [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Assessment - Ueda noted that while the global economy appears "slightly weak," Japan's economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, providing a foundation for potential policy adjustments [4][6]. - He assessed that recent GDP negative growth is likely temporary, reinforcing the case for a policy shift [4][6]. Group 3: Wage Negotiations - The sustainability of wage growth is highlighted as a critical variable in decision-making, with Ueda stressing the importance of the upcoming spring wage negotiations [6][8]. - The Bank of Japan believes that achieving a "wage-price" positive cycle is essential for reaching the 2% inflation target [6][8]. - Ueda observed a positive shift in corporate behavior towards increasing wages and prices, which could support stronger wage growth in the upcoming negotiations [6][8]. Group 4: Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics - Ueda indicated that inflation levels are expected to align with the 2% target in the latter half of the Bank's three-year forecast period [8]. - He pointed out that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on prices may be more significant now, as companies are more inclined to raise wages and prices [8][9]. - The ongoing depreciation of the yen and its resulting inflationary pressures are factors that the Bank of Japan cannot overlook [8]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following Ueda's remarks, Japanese stocks and bonds experienced declines, with the 20-year government bond yield rising to its highest level since June 1999 [1][4]. - The probability of a December rate hike has surged to over 50%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [11]. - Investors view Ueda's statements as a pivotal moment, potentially leading to a significant change in the yen's trajectory against the dollar [11].