【招银研究】海外降息预期升温，国内风险偏好回暖——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.12.01-12.05）

Group 1: U.S. Macro Strategy - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, below seasonal levels, and continuing claims at 1.96 million, indicating a steady high level [2] - Market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is rising, with expectations for a December rate cut supported by recent comments from voting members [2][3] - The dollar is facing downward pressure due to the return of rate cut trading and potential changes in Fed leadership, with expectations that it will remain within the 96-101 range [3] Group 2: Chinese Macro Strategy - The manufacturing PMI for November is at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while the non-manufacturing index shows a decline, particularly in the service sector [6] - Real estate transactions continue to decline, with new home sales down 31.7% and second-hand home sales down 14.8% in major cities [6] - Industrial profits have turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, reflecting weak recovery momentum and significant fluctuations in profit growth [8] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - A new policy document aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply and demand compatibility has been issued, targeting significant growth in specific sectors by 2027 and 2030 [9] - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support through increased MLF and reverse repos, indicating a focus on long-term liquidity [10] - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with a slight increase in 10-year treasury yields, but expectations of a stable interest rate environment due to weak economic data [11][12] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4% and the ChiNext Index up 4.5%, driven by renewed Fed rate cut expectations [12] - The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.5%, supported by similar factors as the A-share market [13] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, benefiting from liquidity expectations and the ongoing AI wave [13]